Brazil: World’s Next Major Oil Producing Country?

Until 2007, “pre-salt deposits” got limited play in the exploration and production business.  With the discovery of the Tupi field in the Santos Basin that year, Brazil was on the verge of altering its oil and gas production.  The country became a net oil exporter rather than an importer in 2009
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Brazil continues to find new reserves.  This week, Petrobras confirmed a new offshore oil province, in ultra-deepwater in the Segipe-Alagoas Basin.  The latest field is in Block SEAL-M-426.
The #1-BRSA-851-SES (1-SES-158) well, known as Barra, in water depths of 2,341 m (7,725 ft), 58 km off the coast of Sergipe.

The discovery was confirmed through wireline logging and fluid sampling from a formation test. Excellent porosity conditions were confirmed in the reservoirs located in depths between 5,050 and 5,400 m (16,665 and 17,820 ft).  The oil sample indicated excellent quality, with 43°API oil in one horizon and 32° API in another.

But, it is the pre-salt deposits that are getting the most play.  The Tupi field was found at a depth of 18,000 ft (5,455 ft) under a 6,000-ft (1,818 m) layer of salt.  As the Energy Information Administration’s “International Energy Outlook 2011” stated, Tupi and other pre-salt finds hold the potential to make Brazil one of the world’s most prolific oil exporters.”

According to the forecast in the outlook, Brazil will increase its oil production from 2.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2008 to 6.5 million b/d in 2035
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“Recent discoveries in the Campos and Santos basins -- including the Tupi, Guara and Iara field -- both add to the production in the mid- and long-term and suggest the presence of other large fields in the same formation,” the report noted.

However, as the report also continued, “Although Petrobras has repeatedly proven itself to be a leader in deepwater development and is known to have the technical capabilities to develop sub-salt prospects, it is not expected to have the resources (financial, labor, etc.) to develop its domestic plays on its own.”
The high level of interest in these sub-salt plays is seen in recent company activity.

In a presentation at Barclays 2011 CEO Energy-Power Conference, Petrobras noted its  emphasis is on production in deep and ultra-deep waters; licensed blocks that guarantee access to reserves and economies of scale; and new exploratory frontiers, adjacent to existing operations.
In its 2011-15 business plan, Petrobras pointed out that more than half of its development spending during the next five years is in pre-salt prospects.

The company expects to spend about $4 billion per year in exploration.  Between 2011 and 2015, 67 exploratory wells will be drilled in areas of current production in the Campos Basin.
Already, pre-salt production reached 127,000 b/d in July 2011.  The Campos Basin is producing 69,600 b/d and the Santos Basin, 58,000 b/d.

Another major player in the pre-salt Santos Basin is BG Group.  In June, the company released new estimates on mean total reserves and resources.  The net to BG Group is now estimated to amount to some 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) with an upside potential of 8 billion boe net. Existing discoveries account for 96% of the mean total reserves and resources.

As Frank Chapman, BG Group chief executive said at the time, "The doubling of our estimated Santos Basin mean reserves and resources is clearly significant and demonstrates the continued rapid evolution of our understanding of these enormous discoveries. Robust economics and solid progress with the fast-track development program will see gross installed production capacity rising steadily to reach more than 2.3 million boe/d by 2017."

BG Group has interests in five blocks in the Santos Basin, offshore Brazil: BM-S-9 (30%) containing the Guará, Carioca, Abaré and Iguaçu discoveries and prospects; BM-S- 10 (25%) containing the Parati and Macunaima discoveries and prospects; BM-S-11 (25%) containing the Lula, Cernambi and Iara discoveries and prospects; BM-S-50 (20%) containing prospects including Sagittario; and BM-S-52 (40%) containing the Corcovado discovery.

The rush for Brazilian resources remains intense.  The interest can be seen in the orders for new equipment and jockeying for position offshore Brazil.

OGX Petróleo e Gás Ltda. placed an order for drilling and production equipment for three offshore production platforms to be deployed in the Waimea and Waikiki oil and gas fields in the Campos Basin.  OGX plans to drill a significant number of production wells during the next four years.
The Waimea and Waikiki fields are located 60 m (36 miles) off the coast of Rio de Janeiro in water depths ranging from 120 to 140 m (396 to 462 ft).

Several companies have been buying and selling lease interests.  A 10% interest in License BM-CAL-7 and 15% of License BM-CAL-10 in the Camamu-Almada Basin was farmed out to Canadian company Gran Tierra Energy by Statoil.

Queiroz Galvão Exploração e Produção S.A. entered into a purchase and sale agreement for an undisclosed amount for the acquisition of 30% of Shell Brasil Petroleo Ltda.’s participating interest in Block BS-4, Santos Basin.

The block includes the Atlanta and Oliva finds. Shell is divesting its interest in several offshore blocks in order to focus on the Parque das Conchas area in the southeast Campos Basin, which produced 90,000 boe/d in June.

Shell has also announced plans to divest its interests in offshore blocks BM-S-45 and BM-ES-28
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As the EIA report noted, “Financing the development of pre-salt oilfields will be expensive.  One analyst has suggested that Brazil’s current undertaking could be ‘the largest private-sector investment program in the history of mankind.’”